(1) No, there’s probably not strong evidence that things like shark attacks and football games have big effects on elections. (I covered a related Achen/Bartels problem in an earlier post: Their abortion findings seem to involve the kind of researcher-degree-of-freedom moves that once weren’t really scrutinized, but now seem obviously problematic.)
(4) Births to unauthorized immigrants have been declining and are now down where they were in 2000/2001.